The A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research presented its Economic Forecast for 2018 at the Segerstrom Center for the Arts in Costa Mesa, CA. Dr. Jim Doti, president emeritus of Chapman University, presented information on the US, California, and Orange County. Chapman ranks #1 in forecast accuracy for real GDP in the ‘04-‘16 period compared to others participating in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators surveys AND we’ve continued our Lacrosse winning streak over USC!
U.S. Forecast: This is the second longest recovery on record and there are no recessionary indicators…relatively smooth sailing in 2018. Real GDP will decline from 2.3% in 2017 to 2.2% in 2018. National housing starts in 2018 are forecasted at 1.2 million units.
California Forecast: Manufacturing jobs are rapidly decreasing as they are sent offshore and to lower cost areas. Silicon Valley’s once booming information services jobs peaked at 10.3% in 2014 and dropped to est. 2.8% in 2017. Downward pressure on this variable, real imports in the US, and on total building permit valuation create a decline in CA job growth which is more in line with the US job growth trend. If you live in California and work in real estate the daily question is tax reform. Dr. Jim Doti presented key stats on the CA tax implications facing homeownership based on a study conducted by the Anderson Center for Economic Research and Hoag Center for Real Estate and Finance.
Orange County Forecast: OC housing appreciation increased from 3% in 2016 to 6.4% in 2017, but is forecasted to drop to 5.2% in 2018. Low inventory will continue to put pressure on prices. They also applied their CA tax reform methodology to show the impact on median home prices in OC cities resulting from the loss of tax benefits. See Chapman’s press release, “The Impact of the House Tax Plan on Orange County Home Prices,” dated November 17, 2017. Payroll employment annual % change moves from 0.6% in 2017e to 0.8% in 2018 showing continued weakness, but should cease with job growth picking up. OC’s 2017e of 0.6% is much lower compared to CA at 1.7% and US at 1.5%.
2018 Economic Forecast Press Release
I’m proud to be a Chapman Alumni and remind you to Think Chapman First when looking for top-notch talent to fill roles within your organization.
Today is the first day of summer! We love living in Orange County because we can go to the beach any day of the year (well almost). Summer months are the BEST because the days are long, people are in better spirits, and the weather is divine.
Where do people go to escape the summer heat? To the water of course! A fun activity to try this summer is cruising in an electric boat, also known as a Duffy. People rent, buy, and share ownership of these small vessels. The simplest option is to rent a Duffy by the hour. Try Newport Fun Tours or Davey’s Locker in Newport Beach. Electric boats are easy to drive and accommodate 8-10 people. Pack up some snacks, beverages, or even a pizza (local favorite is Laventina’s on the Balboa Peninsula) and spend some time on the water. Newport Harbor features seven islands and lots of gorgeous multi-million dollar waterfront homes. You will see beautiful yachts, sailboats, and maybe a sea lion basking on the back of a boat.
If you want to experience the delicious Newport Beach waterfront restaurants; your adventure awaits! There are several restaurants with dock space for your Duffy. Don’t forget to tie a cleat hitch or tip the dock attendant so your boat doesn’t float away while you’re in the restaurant. See the list of Dock and Dine restaurants here. Anchors aweigh!
To laugh often and much; to win the respect of intelligent people and the affection of children; to earn the appreciation of honest critics and endure the betrayal of false friends; to appreciate beauty, to find the best in others; to leave the world a bit better; whether by a healthy child, a garden patch or a redeemed social condition; to know even one life has breathed easier because you lived. This is to have succeeded. -Ralph Waldo Emerson
January is National Mentoring Month. Big Brothers Big Sisters Orange County has made a BIG difference in my life. I’ve been matched with my little sister since April 2014 and it has been one of the best experiences. The Big Brothers Big Sisters mission is to provide children facing adversity with strong and enduring, professionally-supported one-to-one relationships that change their lives for the better, forever. We have a growing wait list of kids in need within our local community. 2016 is the year to make an impact.
Some important stats…
- 98% of children in the BBBS OC program (“Littles”) graduate high school on time
- 90% enroll in college
- 70% of Littles were first in their family to graduate high school
Spend a few hours 2-4 times a month as a mentor to help make a difference in creating a brighter future for a child. You have the potential to start something BIG. Sign up to learn more.
#OCBigsMentor #NationalMentoringMonth #GoBigOC
Riding bikes at Sports Day
Caught a yellowtail off the coast
Sailing lessons – tacking and jibing like pros
Happy New Year! May peace, health, and happiness find their way to your door in 2016.
The A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research released the 2016 forecast on the nation, California, and Orange County. Business leaders, media, and Chapman University alumni gathered at the Segerstrom Center for the Arts to hear the details on December 9, 2015.
- Orange County median home prices to increase by 2.5 percent in 2016
- A lower unemployment rate should fuel real estate purchases
- Orange County forecast looks to generate about 39,000 payroll jobs in 2016, an increase of 2.5 percent
Read the 2016 Forecast Press Release here
It’s my 8th year participating in the annual CHOC Walk in the Park. The CHOC Walk draws approximately 16,000 walkers and raises around two million dollars every year for the care, education, and services of children.
Why do I participate every year?
I started volunteering at CHOC back in college. My dance group performed for the children in hopes of making them smile and laugh (it worked!). After college, my company was involved with CHOC and Children’s Miracle Network. I took on a leadership position through a CHOC advisory board and learned more about this incredible hospital and how they care for the littlest of patients. I’ll always remember my tour through NICU. The babies were so tiny! Here’s a photo of a blood pressure cuff used to take a preemie’s blood pressure.
Even on an early morning in October, people are energized and smiling; eager to walk through Disneyland and California Adventure. There’s excitement in the air and a great sense of community. Some people are holding signs and wearing t-shirts thanking CHOC doctors and nurses and others are holding messages with “cancer free” and the little kid is walking with his/her group. That is awesome to see! However, there are groups holding up sad signs in honor of a child that lost the battle. Amidst the smiles of the morning, I can’t help but shed a few tears when I see these. This feeling has never gone away and keeps me walking every year. Even if I have a rough day, I know there is a child at CHOC that needs my prayers and must fight to make it to tomorrow.
With your support, CHOC Children’s
can continue to provide healthcare and services to our community’s children. Please donate any amount to my CHOC Walk in the Park page
. Skip your Starbucks run and donate $5 today! You’ll be pleased to know that your gift will make a difference in the life of a child. Thank you for your support!
The A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research released an updated economic forecast for 2015 and 2016 forecast at the Segerstrom Center for the Arts in Costa Mesa, CA. Dr. Jim Doti and Dr. Esmael Adibi from Chapman University presented information on the nation, California, and Orange County.
- Orange County median home prices to increase by 4.8 percent in 2015 and 3.7 percent in 2016
- With a $89,000 median family income in 2016, a potential Orange County buyer needs to allocate 37.9 percent of that income to purchase a median-priced home
- Orange County is forecasted to generate about 47,000 payroll jobs in 2015, an increase of 3.1 percent
Read the June 2015 Update Press Release here
The A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research released an updated economic forecast for 2014 and 2015 forecast at the Segerstrom Center for the Arts in Costa Mesa, CA. Dr. Jim Doti and Dr. Esmael Adibi from Chapman University presented information on the nation, California, and Orange County. “The forecast calls for real GDP growth to surpass three percent in 2015—the first time that has happened on an annual basis since the recovery began in 2009. ”
- Household wealth is at its highest level ever, above $80 trillion
- Construction of new homes has served as an engine of growth for the economy
- Median resale SFR prices are forecasted to increase by 4.1% in Orange County for 2015
Read the June 2014 Forecast Press Release Here