The A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research presented its Economic Forecast for 2018 at the Segerstrom Center for the Arts in Costa Mesa, CA. Dr. Jim Doti, president emeritus of Chapman University, presented information on the US, California, and Orange County. Chapman ranks #1 in forecast accuracy for real GDP in the ‘04-‘16 period compared to others participating in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators surveys AND we’ve continued our Lacrosse winning streak over USC!
U.S. Forecast: This is the second longest recovery on record and there are no recessionary indicators…relatively smooth sailing in 2018. Real GDP will decline from 2.3% in 2017 to 2.2% in 2018. National housing starts in 2018 are forecasted at 1.2 million units.
California Forecast: Manufacturing jobs are rapidly decreasing as they are sent offshore and to lower cost areas. Silicon Valley’s once booming information services jobs peaked at 10.3% in 2014 and dropped to est. 2.8% in 2017. Downward pressure on this variable, real imports in the US, and on total building permit valuation create a decline in CA job growth which is more in line with the US job growth trend. If you live in California and work in real estate the daily question is tax reform. Dr. Jim Doti presented key stats on the CA tax implications facing homeownership based on a study conducted by the Anderson Center for Economic Research and Hoag Center for Real Estate and Finance.
Orange County Forecast: OC housing appreciation increased from 3% in 2016 to 6.4% in 2017, but is forecasted to drop to 5.2% in 2018. Low inventory will continue to put pressure on prices. They also applied their CA tax reform methodology to show the impact on median home prices in OC cities resulting from the loss of tax benefits. See Chapman’s press release, “The Impact of the House Tax Plan on Orange County Home Prices,” dated November 17, 2017. Payroll employment annual % change moves from 0.6% in 2017e to 0.8% in 2018 showing continued weakness, but should cease with job growth picking up. OC’s 2017e of 0.6% is much lower compared to CA at 1.7% and US at 1.5%.
2018 Economic Forecast Press Release
I’m proud to be a Chapman Alumni and remind you to Think Chapman First when looking for top-notch talent to fill roles within your organization.
The A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research released an updated economic forecast for 2017 at the Musco Center for the Arts in Orange, CA. Dr. Jim Doti, president emeritus of Chapman University, presented information on the Nation, California, and Orange County.
U.S. Forecast: This is one of the longest recoveries on record at 8 years! With moderate inflation of 1.7% the Fed will not aggressively raise interest rates. Real GDP will grow at 2.3% in 2017, up from 1.6% in 2016. Nationally housing starts for ‘17f is at 1,302,300 units.
California Forecast: California’s home price-to-income ratio is currently 5.8 with the nation’s at 3.3. What’s the major cause of California’s housing affordability problem? The supply of unsold resale homes is below the average of 5.1 months plus higher mortgage rates are increasing home appreciation to 6.5% in 2017 from 5.5% in 2016. Silicon Valley is the a major variable swinging the CA forecast. Silicon Valley’s incredibly high housing prices are causing substantial job losses in the tech information sector because employees are relocating or choosing to live/work in other tech hubs throughout the nation with more affordable housing.
Orange County Forecast: OC is nearly at full employment with a 3.2% unemployment rate. Without a major job sector increasing job growth, the 2017 forecast for overall Orange County job growth is 1.5%; the slowest rate of growth since the recovery began in 2009. Housing appreciation is forecasted at 6.2% for 2017. OC will produce enough housing units to bring down population housing density from 2.93 people per housing unit in 2015 to 2.87 people per housing unit by 2020. Median DOM is a lead indicator of housing prices dropping and the current trend does not reveal a bubble bursting in the near future. Orange County’s median SFR home price is forecasted to be $792,593 by Q4 with a price-to-income ratio currently at 8.6. The “graying” of OC’s population is a source of concern because the 65+ market will not contribute to future employment and OC’s expensive real estate might just be traded back and forth among these baby boomers. Is there a solution? Doti unveiled his OC vision of a “pro-tech beach hub” to recover and stimulate job creation, leading to increased salaries for people to afford the high real estate prices.
2017 Economic Forecast Update Press Release
Happy New Year! May peace, health, and happiness find their way to your door in 2016.
The A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research released the 2016 forecast on the nation, California, and Orange County. Business leaders, media, and Chapman University alumni gathered at the Segerstrom Center for the Arts to hear the details on December 9, 2015.
- Orange County median home prices to increase by 2.5 percent in 2016
- A lower unemployment rate should fuel real estate purchases
- Orange County forecast looks to generate about 39,000 payroll jobs in 2016, an increase of 2.5 percent
Read the 2016 Forecast Press Release here
The A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research released an updated economic forecast for 2014 and 2015 forecast at the Segerstrom Center for the Arts in Costa Mesa, CA. Dr. Jim Doti and Dr. Esmael Adibi from Chapman University presented information on the nation, California, and Orange County. “The forecast calls for real GDP growth to surpass three percent in 2015—the first time that has happened on an annual basis since the recovery began in 2009. ”
- Household wealth is at its highest level ever, above $80 trillion
- Construction of new homes has served as an engine of growth for the economy
- Median resale SFR prices are forecasted to increase by 4.1% in Orange County for 2015
Read the June 2014 Forecast Press Release Here
The 36th annual Chapman University Economic Forecast presented by Dr. Jim Doti and Dr. Esmael Adibi was held this week at the Segerstrom Center for the Arts in Costa Mesa, CA. Around 1,500 business executives and leaders attended. Through research and analyses the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research projected reporting on the nation, California, and Orange County. The 2014 forecast identified weak economic growth and a “cool off” for housing prices due to “lower housing affordability and increasing supply of new and resale housing units.”
- Residential construction activity will fuel economic growth nationwide
- Total payroll job creation of 332,000 in California and 35,000 in Orange County in 2014.
- Median resale SFR prices are forecasted to increase by 5.6% in Orange County
Read the Nov 2013 Forecast Press Release Here
It’s that time of year again… the entertaining and informative Chapman University Economic Forecast presented by Dr. Jim Doti and Dr. Esmael Adibi. The annual forecast is held in December and the update takes place in June. More than 1,000 business executives gathered at the Segerstrom Center for the Arts in Costa Mesa, CA. Through complex econometrics the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research analyzes and predicts what will happen in the nation, California, and Orange County. I’m happy to report things are improving in Orange County according to the economists.
Positive highlights for Orange County include:
2014 median annual household income projected to be $88,800
Price of a median-single family home is forecasted to increase by 8.8 percent according to the California Association of Realtors®
- Addition of 32,000 jobs in Orange County by the end of 2013
- OC job creation increased 2.3% in 2012 and was spread over multiple sectors
Read the full forecast here:
I attended a TEDx event this past week at Chapman University in Orange, CA. What an amazing day filled with talented presenters. The theme was Icons, Geniuses, & Mavericks. I was first exposed to TED talks at the beginning of business school and have been a fan since. TED stands for Technology, Entertainment, Design and has been around since 1984 with the slogan “Ideas worth spreading.” The added “x” means an independently organized event. TED talks consist of short messages (around 18 minutes) about innovative ideas or research findings presented in a story-like fashion on a stage in front of an audience. TED events take place globally and attract experts and well-known individuals including Bill Clinton and Bill Gates. I even have the TED app on my phone, which I recommend you download immediately. =) Like so many people, I’m drawn to these messages because I think there is always something new to learn and listening to a person full of passion on a particular topic is uplifting. To see the complete list of presenters at the Chapman event, visit this link.
Here are highlights I’d like to share with you:
- Rebrand failure in your mind. You are never done, be a perfectionist.
- Teach students Science, Technology, Engineering, Math. Acronym is STEM and this is the future.
- Friction is where the money is. Curation is good friction and promotes healthy competition.
- Creativity changes the way business operates. Zig when competition is zagging.
- Digital is the new 6th sense and a mobile phone is the medium. By 2020 50 billion devices will generate more data in one day than the past 100 years.
- The global stage leads to global competition.
- Change your lens and change your view of happiness.
- Absence of disease does not equal health. Obtain good health through everyday living.
- Our society has perfected the art of not feeling feelings. Give yourself space to feel feelings by disconnecting from online obsession.
- Be adaptive and agile. Know the signals to make changes for the success of your organization.
- Normal is merely average.
Gwynne Shotwel, President & COO of SpaceX. Photo credit: TEDxChapmanU Facebook page. See more photos here.
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