Chapman Economic Forecast Update 2017

Think Chapman First

The A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research released an updated economic forecast for 2017 at the Musco Center for the Arts in Orange, CA. Dr. Jim Doti, president emeritus of Chapman University, presented information on the Nation, California, and Orange County.

U.S. Forecast: This is one of the longest recoveries on record at 8 years! With moderate inflation of 1.7% the Fed will not aggressively raise interest rates. Real GDP will grow at 2.3% in 2017, up from 1.6% in 2016. Nationally housing starts for ‘17f is at 1,302,300 units.

California Forecast: California’s home price-to-income ratio is currently 5.8 with the nation’s at 3.3. What’s the major cause of California’s housing affordability problem? The supply of unsold resale homes is below the average of 5.1 months plus higher mortgage rates are increasing home appreciation to 6.5% in 2017 from 5.5% in 2016. Silicon Valley is the a major variable swinging the CA forecast. Silicon Valley’s incredibly high housing prices are causing substantial job losses in the tech information sector because employees are relocating or choosing to live/work in other tech hubs throughout the nation with more affordable housing.  

Orange County Forecast: OC is nearly at full employment with a 3.2% unemployment rate. Without a major job sector increasing job growth, the 2017 forecast for overall Orange County job growth is 1.5%; the slowest rate of growth since the recovery began in 2009. Housing appreciation is forecasted at 6.2% for 2017. OC will produce enough housing units to bring down population housing density from 2.93 people per housing unit in 2015 to 2.87 people per housing unit by 2020. Median DOM is a lead indicator of housing prices dropping and the current trend does not reveal a bubble bursting in the near future. Orange County’s median SFR home price is forecasted to be $792,593 by Q4 with a price-to-income ratio currently at 8.6. The “graying” of OC’s population is a source of concern because the 65+ market will not contribute to future employment and OC’s expensive real estate might just be traded back and forth among these baby boomers. Is there a solution? Doti unveiled his OC vision of a “pro-tech beach hub” to recover and stimulate job creation, leading to increased salaries for people to afford the high real estate prices.   

2017 Economic Forecast Update Press Release

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Hey Monarch Bay!

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Endless ocean views from Monarch Bay

One of my favorite beach communities in Orange County is guard gated Monarch Bay on the oceanside of PCH in Monarch Beach. It is comprised of 214 home sites with tranquil ocean views throughout the community. Monarch Beach is an area in Dana Point, CA with a few prestigious neighborhoods and ideally located near two AAA 5 Diamond Award winning resorts: Monarch Beach Resort and The Ritz Carlton.

This community offers custom ocean view homes and many single levels and reverse-style floor plans (main living areas on the top floor with bedrooms on the lower level).  “Building down” is a common layout for beach communities because it protects people’s million dollar ocean views. Monarch Bay features many gorgeous, trophy oceanfront properties boasting coastline and white water views.

Want access to a private beach and oceanfront restaurant? Residents may purchase a membership to the Monarch Bay Club to access the beach, restaurant, tennis courts, nearby Laguna Niguel Racquet Club, and discounted services such as golf and spa treatments at Monarch Beach Resort. If you aren’t lucky enough to live in Monarch Bay, you could purchase an Elite Membership to Monarch Bay Resort to gain access. Not only could you bask on the sand at one of THE best beaches in OC, but you could have your own beach host to set up your lounge chairs, towels, and umbrellas. Does it get any better? Indulge in resort-like amenities right in your backyard! Dreaming about a bonfire on the beach? Fire rings are available to rent along with beach toys like stand up paddle boards and kayaks. If you live in Monarch Bay, you could cruise the neighborhood in a golf cart to top off your year-round vacation vibes.

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At OC Look 2016 held at an oceanfront listing in Monarch Bay, CA.

Chapman Economic Forecast for 2016

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Happy New Year! May peace, health, and happiness find their way to your door in 2016.

The A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research released the 2016 forecast on the nation, California, and Orange County. Business leaders, media, and Chapman University alumni gathered at the Segerstrom Center for the Arts to hear the details on December 9, 2015.

Highlights include:

  • Orange County median home prices to increase by 2.5 percent in 2016
  • A lower unemployment rate should fuel real estate purchases
  • Orange County forecast looks to generate about 39,000 payroll jobs in 2016, an increase of 2.5 percent

Read the 2016 Forecast Press Release here

Chapman Economic Forecast Update – Orange County, CA

OC buildingThe A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research released an updated economic forecast for 2015 and 2016 forecast at the Segerstrom Center for the Arts in Costa Mesa, CA. Dr. Jim Doti and Dr. Esmael Adibi from Chapman University presented information on the nation, California, and Orange County.

Highlights include:

  • Orange County median home prices to increase by 4.8 percent in 2015 and 3.7 percent in 2016
  • With a $89,000 median family income in 2016, a potential Orange County buyer needs to allocate 37.9 percent of that income to purchase a median-priced home
  • Orange County is forecasted to generate about 47,000 payroll jobs in 2015, an increase of 3.1 percent

Read the June 2015 Update Press Release here

Chapman Economic Forecast for 2015

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The A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research released an updated economic forecast for 2014 and 2015 forecast at the Segerstrom Center for the Arts in Costa Mesa, CA. Dr. Jim Doti and Dr. Esmael Adibi from Chapman University presented information on the nation, California, and Orange County. “The forecast calls for real GDP growth to surpass three percent in 2015—the first time that has happened on an annual basis since the recovery began in 2009. ”

Highlights include:

  • Household wealth is at its highest level ever, above $80 trillion
  • Construction of new homes has served as an engine of growth for the economy
  • Median resale SFR prices are forecasted to increase by 4.1% in Orange County for 2015

Read the June 2014 Forecast Press Release Here

June 2014

 

Chapman Economic Forecast – Orange County, CA

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The 36th annual Chapman University Economic Forecast presented by Dr. Jim Doti and Dr. Esmael Adibi was held this week at the Segerstrom Center for the Arts in Costa Mesa, CA.  Around 1,500 business executives and leaders attended.  Through research and analyses the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research projected reporting on the nation, California, and Orange County.  The 2014 forecast identified weak economic growth and a “cool off” for housing prices due to “lower housing affordability and increasing supply of new and resale housing units.”

Highlights include:

  • Residential construction activity will fuel economic growth nationwide
  • Total payroll job creation of 332,000 in California and 35,000 in Orange County in 2014.
  • Median resale SFR prices are forecasted to increase by 5.6% in Orange County

Read the Nov 2013 Forecast Press Release Here

A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research Press Release

OC Cities

Many parts of Orange County including areas inland are amazing places to buy real estate.  Excellent neighborhoods are scattered across OC from turnkey condos ideal for business travelers to homes perfect for raising a family.  I was surprised to hear recently from Curt Pringle, former Mayor of Anaheim, that Orange County has 34 incorporated cities.  I knew Orange County houses around 3 million+ people and about 1 million are Catholic, but 34 was such a large number.  I did not want to Google the list, so I counted the cities to test my knowledge.  Check out the list here.  Which city is your favorite?  If you need some more time to decide, just keep calm and go to the beach.

I typically discuss coastal real estate because luxury homes have been my focus over the years.  Most of these homes are closer to the Pacific Ocean translating into a higher price point due to the limited supply of prime real estate or land near the beach.  The temperature along the coast hovers between 60 to 70 degrees and most days showcase a view of Catalina Island.  I’m also happiest at the beach, so real estate by the beach works well.  One of my favorite questions to ask friends and clients is, “Do/would you prefer to live beachfront or up in the hills with a spectacular ocean view?”  Still not sure which you would pick?  Imagine you hit the Lotto and had an extra $15M to spend, then select your answer.