Chapman Economic Forecast | 40th Anniversary

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The A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research presented its Economic Forecast for 2018 at the Segerstrom Center for the Arts in Costa Mesa, CA. Dr. Jim Doti, president emeritus of Chapman University, presented information on the US, California, and Orange County. Chapman ranks #1 in forecast accuracy for real GDP in the ‘04-‘16 period compared to others participating in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators surveys AND we’ve continued our Lacrosse winning streak over USC! 

U.S. Forecast: This is the second longest recovery on record and there are no recessionary indicators…relatively smooth sailing in 2018. Real GDP will decline from 2.3% in 2017 to 2.2% in 2018. National housing starts in 2018 are forecasted at 1.2 million units.

California Forecast: Manufacturing jobs are rapidly decreasing as they are sent offshore and to lower cost areas. Silicon Valley’s once booming information services jobs peaked at 10.3% in 2014 and dropped to est. 2.8% in 2017. Downward pressure on this variable, real imports in the US, and on total building permit valuation create a decline in CA job growth which is more in line with the US job growth trend. If you live in California and work in real estate the daily question is tax reform. Dr. Jim Doti presented key stats on the CA tax implications facing homeownership based on a study conducted by the Anderson Center for Economic Research and Hoag Center for Real Estate and Finance.

Orange County Forecast: OC housing appreciation increased from 3% in 2016 to 6.4% in 2017, but is forecasted to drop to 5.2% in 2018. Low inventory will continue to put pressure on prices. They also applied their CA tax reform methodology to show the impact on median home prices in OC cities resulting from the loss of tax benefits. See Chapman’s press release, “The Impact of the House Tax Plan on Orange County Home Prices,” dated November 17, 2017. Payroll employment annual % change moves from 0.6% in 2017e to 0.8% in 2018 showing continued weakness, but should cease with job growth picking up. OC’s 2017e of 0.6% is much lower compared to CA at 1.7% and US at 1.5%.

2018 Economic Forecast Press Release

I’m proud to be a Chapman Alumni and remind you to Think Chapman First when looking for top-notch talent to fill roles within your organization.

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Chapman Economic Forecast Update 2017

Think Chapman First

The A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research released an updated economic forecast for 2017 at the Musco Center for the Arts in Orange, CA. Dr. Jim Doti, president emeritus of Chapman University, presented information on the Nation, California, and Orange County.

U.S. Forecast: This is one of the longest recoveries on record at 8 years! With moderate inflation of 1.7% the Fed will not aggressively raise interest rates. Real GDP will grow at 2.3% in 2017, up from 1.6% in 2016. Nationally housing starts for ‘17f is at 1,302,300 units.

California Forecast: California’s home price-to-income ratio is currently 5.8 with the nation’s at 3.3. What’s the major cause of California’s housing affordability problem? The supply of unsold resale homes is below the average of 5.1 months plus higher mortgage rates are increasing home appreciation to 6.5% in 2017 from 5.5% in 2016. Silicon Valley is the a major variable swinging the CA forecast. Silicon Valley’s incredibly high housing prices are causing substantial job losses in the tech information sector because employees are relocating or choosing to live/work in other tech hubs throughout the nation with more affordable housing.  

Orange County Forecast: OC is nearly at full employment with a 3.2% unemployment rate. Without a major job sector increasing job growth, the 2017 forecast for overall Orange County job growth is 1.5%; the slowest rate of growth since the recovery began in 2009. Housing appreciation is forecasted at 6.2% for 2017. OC will produce enough housing units to bring down population housing density from 2.93 people per housing unit in 2015 to 2.87 people per housing unit by 2020. Median DOM is a lead indicator of housing prices dropping and the current trend does not reveal a bubble bursting in the near future. Orange County’s median SFR home price is forecasted to be $792,593 by Q4 with a price-to-income ratio currently at 8.6. The “graying” of OC’s population is a source of concern because the 65+ market will not contribute to future employment and OC’s expensive real estate might just be traded back and forth among these baby boomers. Is there a solution? Doti unveiled his OC vision of a “pro-tech beach hub” to recover and stimulate job creation, leading to increased salaries for people to afford the high real estate prices.   

2017 Economic Forecast Update Press Release

Hey Monarch Bay!

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Endless ocean views from Monarch Bay

One of my favorite beach communities in Orange County is guard gated Monarch Bay on the oceanside of PCH in Monarch Beach. It is comprised of 214 home sites with tranquil ocean views throughout the community. Monarch Beach is an area in Dana Point, CA with a few prestigious neighborhoods and ideally located near two AAA 5 Diamond Award winning resorts: Monarch Beach Resort and The Ritz Carlton.

This community offers custom ocean view homes and many single levels and reverse-style floor plans (main living areas on the top floor with bedrooms on the lower level).  “Building down” is a common layout for beach communities because it protects people’s million dollar ocean views. Monarch Bay features many gorgeous, trophy oceanfront properties boasting coastline and white water views.

Want access to a private beach and oceanfront restaurant? Residents may purchase a membership to the Monarch Bay Club to access the beach, restaurant, tennis courts, nearby Laguna Niguel Racquet Club, and discounted services such as golf and spa treatments at Monarch Beach Resort. If you aren’t lucky enough to live in Monarch Bay, you could purchase an Elite Membership to Monarch Bay Resort to gain access. Not only could you bask on the sand at one of THE best beaches in OC, but you could have your own beach host to set up your lounge chairs, towels, and umbrellas. Does it get any better? Indulge in resort-like amenities right in your backyard! Dreaming about a bonfire on the beach? Fire rings are available to rent along with beach toys like stand up paddle boards and kayaks. If you live in Monarch Bay, you could cruise the neighborhood in a golf cart to top off your year-round vacation vibes.

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At OC Look 2016 held at an oceanfront listing in Monarch Bay, CA.

Chapman Economic Forecast for 2016

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Happy New Year! May peace, health, and happiness find their way to your door in 2016.

The A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research released the 2016 forecast on the nation, California, and Orange County. Business leaders, media, and Chapman University alumni gathered at the Segerstrom Center for the Arts to hear the details on December 9, 2015.

Highlights include:

  • Orange County median home prices to increase by 2.5 percent in 2016
  • A lower unemployment rate should fuel real estate purchases
  • Orange County forecast looks to generate about 39,000 payroll jobs in 2016, an increase of 2.5 percent

Read the 2016 Forecast Press Release here

Chapman Economic Forecast Update – Orange County, CA

OC buildingThe A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research released an updated economic forecast for 2015 and 2016 forecast at the Segerstrom Center for the Arts in Costa Mesa, CA. Dr. Jim Doti and Dr. Esmael Adibi from Chapman University presented information on the nation, California, and Orange County.

Highlights include:

  • Orange County median home prices to increase by 4.8 percent in 2015 and 3.7 percent in 2016
  • With a $89,000 median family income in 2016, a potential Orange County buyer needs to allocate 37.9 percent of that income to purchase a median-priced home
  • Orange County is forecasted to generate about 47,000 payroll jobs in 2015, an increase of 3.1 percent

Read the June 2015 Update Press Release here

Chapman Economic Forecast for 2015

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The A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research released an updated economic forecast for 2014 and 2015 forecast at the Segerstrom Center for the Arts in Costa Mesa, CA. Dr. Jim Doti and Dr. Esmael Adibi from Chapman University presented information on the nation, California, and Orange County. “The forecast calls for real GDP growth to surpass three percent in 2015—the first time that has happened on an annual basis since the recovery began in 2009. ”

Highlights include:

  • Household wealth is at its highest level ever, above $80 trillion
  • Construction of new homes has served as an engine of growth for the economy
  • Median resale SFR prices are forecasted to increase by 4.1% in Orange County for 2015

Read the June 2014 Forecast Press Release Here

June 2014

 

Chapman Economic Forecast – Orange County, CA

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The 36th annual Chapman University Economic Forecast presented by Dr. Jim Doti and Dr. Esmael Adibi was held this week at the Segerstrom Center for the Arts in Costa Mesa, CA.  Around 1,500 business executives and leaders attended.  Through research and analyses the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research projected reporting on the nation, California, and Orange County.  The 2014 forecast identified weak economic growth and a “cool off” for housing prices due to “lower housing affordability and increasing supply of new and resale housing units.”

Highlights include:

  • Residential construction activity will fuel economic growth nationwide
  • Total payroll job creation of 332,000 in California and 35,000 in Orange County in 2014.
  • Median resale SFR prices are forecasted to increase by 5.6% in Orange County

Read the Nov 2013 Forecast Press Release Here

A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research Press Release