Chapman Economic Forecast | 40th Anniversary

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The A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research presented its Economic Forecast for 2018 at the Segerstrom Center for the Arts in Costa Mesa, CA. Dr. Jim Doti, president emeritus of Chapman University, presented information on the US, California, and Orange County. Chapman ranks #1 in forecast accuracy for real GDP in the ‘04-‘16 period compared to others participating in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators surveys AND we’ve continued our Lacrosse winning streak over USC! 

U.S. Forecast: This is the second longest recovery on record and there are no recessionary indicators…relatively smooth sailing in 2018. Real GDP will decline from 2.3% in 2017 to 2.2% in 2018. National housing starts in 2018 are forecasted at 1.2 million units.

California Forecast: Manufacturing jobs are rapidly decreasing as they are sent offshore and to lower cost areas. Silicon Valley’s once booming information services jobs peaked at 10.3% in 2014 and dropped to est. 2.8% in 2017. Downward pressure on this variable, real imports in the US, and on total building permit valuation create a decline in CA job growth which is more in line with the US job growth trend. If you live in California and work in real estate the daily question is tax reform. Dr. Jim Doti presented key stats on the CA tax implications facing homeownership based on a study conducted by the Anderson Center for Economic Research and Hoag Center for Real Estate and Finance.

Orange County Forecast: OC housing appreciation increased from 3% in 2016 to 6.4% in 2017, but is forecasted to drop to 5.2% in 2018. Low inventory will continue to put pressure on prices. They also applied their CA tax reform methodology to show the impact on median home prices in OC cities resulting from the loss of tax benefits. See Chapman’s press release, “The Impact of the House Tax Plan on Orange County Home Prices,” dated November 17, 2017. Payroll employment annual % change moves from 0.6% in 2017e to 0.8% in 2018 showing continued weakness, but should cease with job growth picking up. OC’s 2017e of 0.6% is much lower compared to CA at 1.7% and US at 1.5%.

2018 Economic Forecast Press Release

I’m proud to be a Chapman Alumni and remind you to Think Chapman First when looking for top-notch talent to fill roles within your organization.

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Chapman Economic Forecast Update 2017

Think Chapman First

The A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research released an updated economic forecast for 2017 at the Musco Center for the Arts in Orange, CA. Dr. Jim Doti, president emeritus of Chapman University, presented information on the Nation, California, and Orange County.

U.S. Forecast: This is one of the longest recoveries on record at 8 years! With moderate inflation of 1.7% the Fed will not aggressively raise interest rates. Real GDP will grow at 2.3% in 2017, up from 1.6% in 2016. Nationally housing starts for ‘17f is at 1,302,300 units.

California Forecast: California’s home price-to-income ratio is currently 5.8 with the nation’s at 3.3. What’s the major cause of California’s housing affordability problem? The supply of unsold resale homes is below the average of 5.1 months plus higher mortgage rates are increasing home appreciation to 6.5% in 2017 from 5.5% in 2016. Silicon Valley is the a major variable swinging the CA forecast. Silicon Valley’s incredibly high housing prices are causing substantial job losses in the tech information sector because employees are relocating or choosing to live/work in other tech hubs throughout the nation with more affordable housing.  

Orange County Forecast: OC is nearly at full employment with a 3.2% unemployment rate. Without a major job sector increasing job growth, the 2017 forecast for overall Orange County job growth is 1.5%; the slowest rate of growth since the recovery began in 2009. Housing appreciation is forecasted at 6.2% for 2017. OC will produce enough housing units to bring down population housing density from 2.93 people per housing unit in 2015 to 2.87 people per housing unit by 2020. Median DOM is a lead indicator of housing prices dropping and the current trend does not reveal a bubble bursting in the near future. Orange County’s median SFR home price is forecasted to be $792,593 by Q4 with a price-to-income ratio currently at 8.6. The “graying” of OC’s population is a source of concern because the 65+ market will not contribute to future employment and OC’s expensive real estate might just be traded back and forth among these baby boomers. Is there a solution? Doti unveiled his OC vision of a “pro-tech beach hub” to recover and stimulate job creation, leading to increased salaries for people to afford the high real estate prices.   

2017 Economic Forecast Update Press Release

Hey Monarch Bay!

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Endless ocean views from Monarch Bay

One of my favorite beach communities in Orange County is guard gated Monarch Bay on the oceanside of PCH in Monarch Beach. It is comprised of 214 home sites with tranquil ocean views throughout the community. Monarch Beach is an area in Dana Point, CA with a few prestigious neighborhoods and ideally located near two AAA 5 Diamond Award winning resorts: Monarch Beach Resort and The Ritz Carlton.

This community offers custom ocean view homes and many single levels and reverse-style floor plans (main living areas on the top floor with bedrooms on the lower level).  “Building down” is a common layout for beach communities because it protects people’s million dollar ocean views. Monarch Bay features many gorgeous, trophy oceanfront properties boasting coastline and white water views.

Want access to a private beach and oceanfront restaurant? Residents may purchase a membership to the Monarch Bay Club to access the beach, restaurant, tennis courts, nearby Laguna Niguel Racquet Club, and discounted services such as golf and spa treatments at Monarch Beach Resort. If you aren’t lucky enough to live in Monarch Bay, you could purchase an Elite Membership to Monarch Bay Resort to gain access. Not only could you bask on the sand at one of THE best beaches in OC, but you could have your own beach host to set up your lounge chairs, towels, and umbrellas. Does it get any better? Indulge in resort-like amenities right in your backyard! Dreaming about a bonfire on the beach? Fire rings are available to rent along with beach toys like stand up paddle boards and kayaks. If you live in Monarch Bay, you could cruise the neighborhood in a golf cart to top off your year-round vacation vibes.

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At OC Look 2016 held at an oceanfront listing in Monarch Bay, CA.

Laguna Beach Art Walk

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When the sun goes down the night lights up in Laguna Beach

First Thursday Art Walk is a lively scene from 6pm-9pm with locals and visitors strolling the streets and perusing through the famed art galleries. The City of Laguna Beach, local galleries, businesses, and art institutions sponsor the event. Visitors also have access to the free Laguna Beach trolley to easily travel between the North, Central, and South galleries. These galleries are located in North Laguna, Downtown, Laguna Village, and Woods Cove.

Arrive early and grab a bite to eat at a restaurant in Downtown Laguna or head into town and enjoy complimentary wine and cheese while admiring fine art. It’s the ideal time to visit more than 35 galleries and learn about the talented artists. My favorite is Kush Fine Art, so stop by and see for yourself.

Newport Harbor – Anchors Aweigh!

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Today is the first day of summer! We love living in Orange County because we can go to the beach any day of the year (well almost). Summer months are the BEST because the days are long, people are in better spirits, and the weather is divine.
Where do people go to escape the summer heat? To the water of course! A fun activity to try this summer is cruising in an electric boat, also known as a Duffy. People rent, buy, and share ownership of these small vessels. The simplest option is to rent a Duffy by the hour. Try Newport Fun Tours or Davey’s Locker in Newport Beach. Electric boats are easy to drive and accommodate 8-10 people. Pack up some snacks, beverages, or even a pizza (local favorite is Laventina’s on the Balboa Peninsula) and spend some time on the water. duffy laventina'sNewport Harbor features seven islands and lots of gorgeous multi-million dollar waterfront homes. You will see beautiful yachts, sailboats, and maybe a sea lion basking on the back of a boat.
If you want to experience the delicious Newport Beach waterfront restaurants; your adventure awaits! There are several restaurants with dock space for your Duffy. Don’t forget to tie a cleat hitch or tip the dock attendant so your boat doesn’t float away while you’re in the restaurant. See the list of Dock and Dine restaurants here. Anchors aweigh!

 

National Mentoring Month – Big Brothers Big Sisters

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To laugh often and much; to win the respect of intelligent people and the affection of children; to earn the appreciation of honest critics and endure the betrayal of false friends; to appreciate beauty, to find the best in others; to leave the world a bit better; whether by a healthy child, a garden patch or a redeemed social condition; to know even one life has breathed easier because you lived. This is to have succeeded.  -Ralph Waldo Emerson

January is National Mentoring Month. Big Brothers Big Sisters Orange County has made a BIG difference in my life. I’ve been matched with my little sister since April 2014 and it has been one of the best experiences. The Big Brothers Big Sisters mission is to provide children facing adversity with strong and enduring, professionally-supported one-to-one relationships that change their lives for the better, forever. We have a growing wait list of kids in need within our local community. 2016 is the year to make an impact.

Some important stats…

  • 98% of children in the BBBS OC program (“Littles”) graduate high school on time
  • 90% enroll in college
  • 70% of Littles were first in their family to graduate high school

Spend a few hours 2-4 times a month as a mentor to help make a difference in creating a brighter future for a child. You have the potential to start something BIG. Sign up to learn more.

#OCBigsMentor #NationalMentoringMonth #GoBigOC
Bike ride

Riding bikes at Sports Day

Caught a yellowtail off the coast

Caught a yellowtail off the coast

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Sailing lessons – tacking and jibing like pros

Chapman Economic Forecast for 2016

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Happy New Year! May peace, health, and happiness find their way to your door in 2016.

The A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research released the 2016 forecast on the nation, California, and Orange County. Business leaders, media, and Chapman University alumni gathered at the Segerstrom Center for the Arts to hear the details on December 9, 2015.

Highlights include:

  • Orange County median home prices to increase by 2.5 percent in 2016
  • A lower unemployment rate should fuel real estate purchases
  • Orange County forecast looks to generate about 39,000 payroll jobs in 2016, an increase of 2.5 percent

Read the 2016 Forecast Press Release here